The surprise resignation of Yukio Hatoyama on June 5 and the subsequent appointment of Naoto Kan gives Japan its sixth prime minister in the past four years. Only Italy comes close when it comes to the game of changing the prime minister. A shakeup before the upper house election in July was to be expected, but few expected the Prime Minister to take himself out of the game. Mr. Hatoyama is the scion of a respected political lineage and seemed like a natural for Prime Minister when he was elected last August. The ascendancy of Mr. Hatoyama and the change of power from the Liberal Democratic Party to the Democratic Party of Japan seemed like a fresh start for Japan last summer. So how did it all go so badly wrong for him after less than a year in office?

The Futenma Base issue looms large. The burden of hosting sprawling US bases has long been a thorn in the side for Okinawans. After promising to relocate the base during last summer's campaign, negotiations stalled. Although base-relocation per-se is only of real importance to Okinawan voters, the phlegmatic way Hatoyama handled it was indicative of his general ineffectiveness. As Mr. Kan has never directly addressed the Futenma issue, he might be able to ignore it with few recriminations. Mr. Hatoyama had also been very close to long-time backroom fixer Ichiro Ozawa. Unfortunately, Mr. Ozawa has become embroiled in a campaign finance scandal that has seen several of his aides resign. This is perhaps to be expected given his role as chief bag-man, but the DPJ had promised clean politics. Mr. Ozawa has resigned from his post of secretary general of the DPJ as well, but it is a fairly safe bet that Mr. Ozawa is much more likely to un-resign himself (many bags to be fetched!), at some time in the future, than Mr. Hatoyama.

The sixty-four year old Mr. Kan was originally elected to the lower house as a member of the Socialist Democratic Federation. In 1996 he first came to national attention when he admitted the government's responsibility for the spread of HIV-tainted blood during the previous decade. The blood supply problem was not unique to Japan, but the circumstances there made it of greater significance. Distribution of non heat-treated blood products continued in Japan long after the use of heat-treated products became the norm in the rest of the developed world. As a result of the 4500 or so hemophiliacs in Japan, about 2000 were exposed to HIV. A firm by the name of Green Cross turned out to be the exclusive provider of the offending products in Japan. Aside from a very close relationship with the Ministry of Health officials responsible for regulating its products, the Chairman of the Board of Green Cross turned out to be a former member of the infamous wartime bio-weapons Unit 731, a Mr. Masaji Kitano.

In Japan, the employment of former bureaucrats being secured by the firms they used to regulate is know as "amakudari"-descent from heaven. Mr. Kitano had mostly reigned in hell, it seems, but turned out to have been very friendly with Ministry of Health officials and employed any number of ministry "old boys". The blood products scandal revealed that amakudari wasn't just a symbol of the mandarin's privilege and arrogance - but it could also have fatal consequences for Japanese citizens. The connection with the infamous Unit 731 made it all the more macabre. At the time, Mr. Kan was the minister of health as a member of a small party which was part of a LDP-led coalition government. He refused to let health ministry mandarins sweep their involvement under the carpet and apologized on behalf of the government to the victims. That marked him as one of the few mainstream politicians who was willing and able to confront the bureaucrats. Given that the DPJ has promised to shift power back to the elected from the cozy club of elite civil-servants and eliminate amakudari, that should make him a good fit. The "Yes We Kan" t-shirt has apparently sold well and opinion polls show that the public has a high degree of confidence in him as Prime Minister.

In terms of his cabinet, he has opted for continuity, 11 of 17 ministers returning. One new face is former model and journalist Renho as Minister of Administrative Reform. The 43-year-old Renho goes by one name, and she did not become a Japanese citizen until 1985. She became known in her father's native Taiwan while covering the 2000 election there on behalf of the Tokyo Broadcasting System. She openly champions an independent Taiwan, once stating, "Taiwan is my father's country. Why isn't Taiwan a country?" As Minister of Administrative Reform she will be expected to spearhead cost-cutting efforts and given her relative youth, she can be expected to be on the political scene for a long time to come.

Yoshioko Noda takes over as Minister of Finance. He can be expected to continue to practice fiscal restraint. Burdened by a per-capita public debt, the highest in the OECD, the DPJ has little choice in this regard. As if the debt crises was not enough, over a quarter of Japanese will be 65 or over by 2015. Thus it is difficult to see how the public pension plan will hold together, and a Greek-style meltdown is possible. An obvious solution would be to raise the five percent consumption tax. That would be unpopular with the same constituencies that brought the DPJ to power in the first place, but is perhaps inevitable. In fact, the January to March quarter showed Japan with a 4.9 percent growth rate, so perhaps the economic recovery will continue.

Katsuya Okada and Toshimi Kitazawa remain as Foreign Minister and Minister of Defense respectively. The sinking of the ROKS Cheonon in March, presumably by a North Korean torpedo, is a stark reminder that Japan is not necessarily in such a friendly neighborhood. Most likely the torpedo attack is connected to a factional dispute within North Korea, but the prospect of renewed hostilities or the collapse of the North Korean regime has to be on Mr. Kitazawa's mind. Therefore the desire of the DPJ to downplay the defense relationship with the United States is likely to be put on the back burner. Certainly Marine Corps Air Station Futenma is going to have to stay where it is for the time being, and more than likely Japan will proceed with the purchase of the Lockheed Martin F-35 fighter. Renho notwithstanding, China/Japan relations are likely to continue a warming trend. The DPJ has proposed inviting foreign scholars to participate in the editing of history textbooks, and a secular replacement for Yasukuni Shrine as a war memorial. These are projects that are likely to proceed slowly, but their mere consideration is a positive sign towards improving relations with other Asian nations.

The resignation of Mr. Hatoyama is an inauspicious coda prior to the July 11 upper house election. However the LDP is still reeling after last summer's defeat. Having previously been in power so long has meant that it is taking them a long time to come to terms with being an effective opposition party. Not being able to distribute patronage eliminates the best reason to vote for them. Even if the LDP does better than expected, the DPJ is likely to be able to cobble together enough of a coalition to see at least some its promises from last summer enacted. This, of course, is a big let-down after the winds of change blew strong last fall, but Japan has been mired in political and economic stagnation for so long that even some progress will be heartily welcomed. As George Eliot said, "It is never too late to be what you might have been."